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Prediction for CME (2021-12-06T05:48:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2021-12-06T05:48Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/18459/-1
CME Note: Partial halo visible in the S in SOHO LASCO/C2; no STEREO A imagery available. Associated with a slow filament eruption centered near S50W10, visible in SDO AIA 304 beginning around 2021-12-06T01:00Z. Slow eruption that takes quite a long time between the eruption in SDO FOV and the CME appearing in the C2 FOV. Weak combined arrival signature with the CME with ID 2021-12-05T14:36:00-CME-001. Gradual increase in B_total, peaking at 9.95nT at 2021-12-11T03:27Z, increases also seen in density, temperature, and briefly in the solar wind speed (peaking at 337km/s).
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2021-12-10T13:27Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 3.0

Predicted Arrival Time: 2021-12-10T09:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 40.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 2.0 - 4.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
Prediction Method Note:

Assessed as a filament eruption beginning 05/2200-2300 approx S20 E20, giving partial halo on LASCO C2 imagery. No Stereo A data.

Lead Time: 78.20 hour(s)
Difference: 4.45 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Robert Loper (M2M Office) on 2021-12-07T07:15Z

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